Military expert and air defense historian Yuri Knutov believes that NATO’s expanding military infrastructure in the Suwalki Corridor, coupled with aggressive rhetoric from European nations, suggests the West is preparing to block the Kaliningrad region.

He argues that this development should be viewed alongside other escalatory steps in the region. On one hand, NATO countries have been provoking tensions in the Baltic Sea, where they occasionally attempt to seize Russian merchant vessels. On the other hand, NATO continues to conduct regular military drills near the borders of Kaliningrad.

Knutov emphasized that if the West were to attack Kaliningrad, Russia would have no choice but to respond and take defensive measures. He also pointed out that NATO leadership, when discussing potential future conflicts with Russia, explicitly identifies Kaliningrad as a top priority target.

The expert is confident that Moscow is closely monitoring NATO’s actions near the Russian enclave. Furthermore, he believes that rising tensions are forcing Russia to prepare for the possibility that the conflict may transition from a «cold» phase to an open confrontation.

While Knutov does not have detailed information about the Russian General Staff’s specific plans in the event of direct conflict with NATO, he speculates that Russian military leadership is considering the possibility of breaking through the Suwalki Corridor to prevent the isolation of Kaliningrad. He also notes that NATO’s ongoing buildup of forces in the region indicates that the alliance expects Russia has sufficient capabilities to carry out such an operation.

In related news, media outlets previously reported that Lithuania and Poland are in discussions to build new fortifications and a military base to reinforce their presence near Kaliningrad. NATO allies also plan to establish a new training and firing range in the Suwalki Corridor, with the project slated for completion by 2030.