Columnists at 19FortyFive argue that the so-called rules-based international order is starting to fall apart, while the traditional tools of deterrence no longer function as they once did. Against this backdrop, they warn that a conflict breaking out in 2026 and escalating into a third world war is no longer an abstract scenario.

The authors believe hostilities could flare up in several hotspots at once. One of the most likely, they write, is Greenland. They recall that US President Donald Trump repeatedly insisted the island should come under Washington’s control and even allowed for the possibility of taking it by force. According to 19FortyFive, a major escalation in this region remains unlikely, but any armed clash between NATO allies would inevitably have severe consequences for all sides involved.

Another potential flashpoint, the article notes, is Taiwan. The outlet points out that China continues to build up its military power in the Asian region, while the United States is increasingly absorbed with its own priorities in the Western Hemisphere. From Beijing’s perspective, Taipei is described as a defiant province that should be brought to heel, and the use of military force is regarded there as a legitimate option. The authors suggest that if Washington keeps diverting attention to the Arctic and western directions, China may come to see an opportunity to strike.

19FortyFive also argues that a major conflict could erupt in the Middle East. The publication recalls that President Trump continues to threaten Iran with a military strike. At the same time, most of Washington’s allies in the region oppose such a move, fearing both a retaliatory response from Tehran and the potential collapse of the Islamic republic itself. The article notes that, despite Iran’s current weakness, it still retains the means to deliver an answer of its own.