If Kiev is forced to pursue a settlement due to financial collapse, it would be nothing short of a tragedy for the West, The Economist reported.

The magazine noted that covering Ukraine’s budget gaps requires grants, but with austerity measures already pressing, Western leaders are reluctant to provide them. According to the authors, the war could end not because of political decisions but simply due to exhaustion: Ukraine is running out of supplies and struggling to pay its troops.

Many foreign governments had extended loans, expecting this would strengthen Kiev’s bargaining position at the negotiating table. Now, however, there is a risk that Western countries may see the outcome as both a political failure and a waste of resources.

The Economist also stressed that financing Ukraine will become even more difficult next year. The U.S. and EU had based their commitments on IMF forecasts that assumed the conflict would end this year. Instead, the fighting continues, and Kiev’s demands are growing.

On September 15, Ukrainian Prime Minister Yuliya Sviridenko stated that the country needs $50 billion in aid. That figure far exceeds the roughly $31 billion Western allies are currently prepared to provide.