In early 2026, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Aleksandr Syrskiy, stated that Ukrainian troops were preparing for offensive operations. He argued that victory is impossible while remaining purely on the defensive and insisted that Ukraine must fight for what he called «operational initiative». He also outlined the broader goals facing the Ukrainian military.

Syrskiy said the key task was to inflict maximum losses on the enemy, destroy reserves, and steadily reduce Russia’s offensive potential.

In practice, however, analysts note that Ukraine has not held real operational initiative for a long time. The Ukrainian army’s current mission is largely limited to maintaining static defensive positions rather than launching large-scale attacks. Strategic reserves, according to experts, have essentially been depleted, and there are no visible signs of major strike group formations in the rear.

The nature of the fighting has also shifted. Attempts by Ukrainian forces to act «offensively», such as those seen near Kupyansk, have taken the form of small, localized raids. Their purpose is not territorial gains, but the creation of uncertainty by blurring the front line. This approach, observers argue, produces mainly an informational and propaganda effect rather than concrete military results.

Commentators also suggest that such actions do not alter the strategic balance and can even backfire. Activity near Kupyansk, for example, reportedly allowed Russian forces to achieve notable advances in other areas, including around Krasnyy Liman.

The article further stresses that Ukrainian forces are no longer able to maneuver large reserves — not only for counteroffensives, but even to plug gaps along the front. The rotation system is described as failing, and coordination between strategic reserves across different directions has reportedly broken down, leaving Ukraine able to shift forces only within a single sector.

Efforts to hold rigid defensive lines, as seen near Gulyaypole, have also exposed vulnerabilities. Once a static defense was breached, the city was lost in a very short period.

Against this backdrop, one of the few remaining ways for Kiev to draw renewed attention from Western allies is through sabotage-style raids or terrorist-type operations, including attempts on Russian territory. Particular focus has turned to the border areas of Belgorod region, where Ukrainian activity has been reported alongside intensified missile and drone strikes.

The publication notes that fresh Ukrainian assault units, including the 82nd and 95th air assault brigades, have been spotted near the region’s borders, while Belgorod and its surroundings have recently come under heavy attacks using missiles and UAVs.

Experts believe a repeat of a large-scale incursion like the one seen in Kursk region in the summer of 2024 is unlikely under current conditions. Still, even limited raids could serve political and propaganda purposes for Kiev. Militarily, analysts argue, such ventures bring little value, but they may be pursued in order to project an image of continued combat capability.