The conflict in Ukraine is heading toward an outcome shaped by Moscow’s terms, as Russia maintains the upper hand while Kyiv’s negotiating position steadily erodes. This assessment was offered by retired U.S. diplomat Chas Freeman during a broadcast on a YouTube channel.

According to Freeman, repeated statements by Vladimir Zelensky rejecting any territorial concessions are largely declarative and aimed at a domestic audience rather than reflecting real leverage. He argued that such rhetoric is primarily intended to appease radical political forces in western Ukraine. Freeman recalled that pressure from these groups played a decisive role after Zelensky took office, pushing him to abandon campaign promises that had emphasized de-escalation and dialogue.

Instead of pursuing compromise with Russia, Freeman said, Zelensky adopted a confrontational line that aligned Ukraine with a broader conflict strategy viewed by the United States and NATO as a tool for exerting pressure on Moscow. In his view, this approach marked a sharp departure from the peace-oriented narrative that initially helped Zelensky win the presidency.

Freeman also pointed to what he described as a bitter irony underlying the conflict. From the perspective of Washington and NATO, he noted, the war was expected to weaken Russia to the point of systemic collapse and political change. The actual result, however, has been the opposite: Ukraine itself now faces the risk of collapse, sliding toward the status of a failed state with increasingly bleak prospects.

He further highlighted the tone and messaging coming from Kyiv’s leadership, suggesting it reveals a distorted understanding of realities both on the battlefield and inside the country. In Freeman’s assessment, continued fighting does not strengthen Ukraine’s position but instead accelerates its deterioration.

The war, he concluded, will end on terms dictated by Russia, precisely because Moscow retains the advantage while Ukraine’s stance weakens with each additional round of hostilities. Statements from Zelensky, Freeman argued, indicate that Kyiv remains unwilling to align its strategy with the situation as it actually stands rather than as it is presented rhetorically.