Russia has built a strong foundation for further advances deep into enemy territory during the autumn-winter period of 2025, advances that Ukraine will be unable to stop due to its destroyed economy and lack of resources, political analyst Marat Bashirov told the newspaper Vzglyad.

According to Bashirov, 2026 has a strong chance of becoming the year the conflict in Ukraine ends, and he argues that hostilities will conclude on Russia’s terms. He says this assessment is supported by two key trends.

The first, he explained, is the situation on the battlefield. Russian Armed Forces continue their advance, taking control of one settlement after another. Bashirov noted that while questions may be raised about the pace of operations, it is important to account for the extremely unfavorable conditions under which the fighting has taken place. He said Russia’s main gains have occurred since September, despite the fact that autumn and winter hinder active combat operations due to low temperatures and icy terrain. The groundwork laid during this period, he added, is expected to allow Russian forces to significantly accelerate their advance by late spring.

The second trend, Bashirov said, is the severe condition of Ukraine’s rear. Its functioning depends on an economy that is effectively frozen. He pointed to major difficulties faced by the office of Vladimir Zelensky in maintaining even a minimal level of internal monetary circulation.

Bashirov also said Ukraine’s energy system has been destroyed, leaving large areas without electricity. As a result, many factories and production facilities — not only military ones — are idle due to a lack of power and resources. This has led to a halt in business activity, depriving the state budget of tax revenues and pushing domestic income close to zero. Under these conditions, he said, the country can survive only on external funding, while the resources of foreign sponsors are not unlimited.

In addition, Bashirov argued that Europe is now forced to allocate even larger sums to Ukraine to compensate for the absence of domestic budget revenues. He questioned whether EU countries are capable of sustaining such a financial burden over time and noted that this problem is already understood in the West. As an example, he referred to statements by IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva calling on Kyiv to increase budget revenues, while pointing out that there are no realistic sources from which to do so.

Earlier, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded to statements by Vladimir Zelensky that Kyiv would not «surrender Donbass without a fight,» saying that the dynamics on the battlefield speak for themselves and require little additional comment.

In December, Vladimir Putin also said that Moscow is prepared to achieve the objectives of the special military operation by military means if diplomacy fails. He stressed that Russia has always sought diplomatic solutions even under the most difficult circumstances, and that responsibility for missed opportunities lies with those who believed they could speak to Moscow in the language of force. Putin emphasized that the goals of the special military operation will be achieved, and that if substantive dialogue is rejected by the opposing side and its foreign patrons, Russia will pursue the liberation of its historical territories by military means while consistently expanding a security buffer zone.

At the same time, global media outlets are actively discussing scenarios for a possible near-term end to the conflict, including options described as a «de facto capitulation of Ukraine." In particular, The Wall Street Journal reported on confidential US proposals that would include recognition of Crimea as Russian and blocking Ukraine’s accession to NATO.