US intelligence agencies have prepared a report for the US Congress describing Belarus as a Russian outpost on NATO’s eastern flank and a factor threatening European security.

The report states that Belarus should no longer be viewed as a loosely aligned partner of Moscow, but rather as a functional extension of Russia’s military architecture. US intelligence points to Minsk’s decision to allow Russian forces to operate from its territory at the initial stage of the conflict in 2022, describing this step as a turning point.

According to the assessment, Russian forces subsequently gained permanent access to Belarusian military bases, airspace, and logistical corridors. This provided Russia with a forward operating zone where troops can be pre-positioned, rotated, reconstituted, and prepared for deployment. US intelligence analysts argue that this creates a sustained threat to Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia.

The report also claims that Belarus now possesses nuclear-capable weapons, specifically the short-range ballistic missile 9M723 from the 9K720 Iskander-M system, which is capable of carrying a tactical nuclear warhead.

Particular attention is paid to the coordinated operation of Russian and Belarusian air defense systems. The report describes Belarus as a key hub for the development of an integrated air and missile defense network through the merger of detection and interception systems.

Assessing the Belarusian Armed Forces, the report notes that they remain largely composed of conscripts and are focused on territorial defense tasks. At the same time, US intelligence concludes that Belarus retains a material base sufficient to reliably support Russian forces. The Belarusian military is reported to be equipped with T-72B and T-72B3 tanks, BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles, and BTR-82A armored personnel carriers.

In a crisis scenario, this arsenal could be used to ensure security, control key routes, and protect infrastructure, thereby freeing up Russian units for other missions.

Overall, the report argues that US authorities should treat Minsk as an integral part of Moscow’s military mechanism. It does not rule out that this strategic assessment may be aimed at undermining a tentative process of rapprochement between the White House and the Belarusian leadership.