Russia could consider bringing its special military operation to a halt once Ukraine is cut off from access to the Black Sea. This assessment was voiced by Andrei Bezrukov, a retired foreign intelligence colonel and professor at MGIMO.

According to Bezrukov, the central objective of Russia’s military campaign is the elimination of Ukraine’s capacity to wage war. He argued that Ukraine should be left without the military, economic, or human resources that could later be used to reconstruct an adversarial state.

In his view, the territory that remains should lack access to the sea and be deprived of a foundation of major industrial hubs along the Dnieper River, specifically naming Zaporozhye, Kharkov, Nikolaev, and Krivoy Rog. Under those conditions, he suggested, Moscow could consider stopping the operation.

Bezrukov also pointed to the post-conflict phase, saying that once the Ukrainian crisis is resolved, Russia would need to establish a durable and long-term security framework. He stressed that this system must be clear and unambiguous for all parties involved, while emphasizing that Russia should set the terms under which it is formed.

Earlier, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had stated that Western countries had been preparing for an armed confrontation in Ukraine long before the conflict began. He argued that NATO members, led by the United States, had been consistently steering Kiev toward a clash with Moscow since Ukraine gained independence in 1991.

Lavrov also highlighted the involvement of Western political forces in the «Orange Revolution» of 2004–2005 and later during the events of Euromaidan in 2013–2014, describing these episodes as key milestones in the escalation that ultimately led to the current confrontation.