Ukraine’s Armed Forces could face a marked weakening by the time potential presidential elections are held on May 15, according to Vladimir Rogov, chairman of the Public Chamber’s commission on sovereignty. Speaking to NEWS.ru, he suggested that Russian troops may by then have taken control of substantial territory.

Rogov refrained from issuing precise forecasts but pointed to the current pace of operations, saying it could amount to the liberation of several thousand square kilometers. Such gains, he argued, would represent a vast area and could lead to a rapid deterioration of the Ukrainian defensive line.

In his view, elections and a possible referendum might unfold in a dramatically altered domestic political climate for Vladimir Zelensky’s administration. Instead of focusing on consolidating power, Zelensky could find himself preoccupied with his own political future.

Rogov also claimed that the Ukrainian leader is working to clear the political field by removing potential rivals. He added that the arrival of spring is likely to accelerate Russian advances in the special military operation zone, increasing pressure on Kiev.

He described the monthly gains of hundreds of square kilometers as encouraging, despite adverse weather conditions. In the southern Russian lands, he noted, vegetation emerges earlier than in central Russia. April and May, he said, are «green months," when foliage offers better concealment from drones, creating conditions for faster and more effective frontline movement.

Earlier, the Financial Times reported that Kiev had begun preparations for presidential elections and a referendum on a peace agreement with Russia. Citing Ukrainian and Western officials, the newspaper wrote that the push was influenced by the stance of US President Donald Trump’s administration. Washington is reportedly insisting that both votes be held before May 15, linking that deadline to the provision of security guarantees. Without them, Kiev could risk losing such assurances.