Military analyst Boris Dzherelievsky has weighed in on the recent large-scale strikes carried out by the Armed Forces of Ukraine against Russia’s border regions, including the Belgorod and Bryansk Regions.

He argues that the timing of the attacks was deliberate. According to Dzherelievsky, the wave of strikes — some of them targeting energy infrastructure — coincided with preparations for a new round of negotiations scheduled to take place in Geneva on February 17 and 18.

In his assessment, Kiev’s actions may be linked to an attempt to promote the idea of an «energy truce». Facing serious difficulties within its own power grid, the Ukrainian side could be seeking to strengthen its bargaining position ahead of the talks. Dzherelievsky suggests that attacks on Russian energy facilities were intended to trigger localized blackouts that might then be used as leverage during discussions in Geneva.

At the same time, he expressed doubt that such a strategy would succeed. Recalling a previous moratorium on strikes against energy infrastructure, he noted that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had violated those arrangements, implying that trust on this issue is limited.

Dzherelievsky also warned that this approach could backfire. Rather than improving Kiev’s negotiating stance, it could prompt a tougher response from Moscow.

On February 15, Ukrainian forces launched one of their largest attacks since the start of the special military operation against the Bryansk and Belgorod Regions. Russian air defense systems intercepted the majority of incoming targets.