According to analysts from the American outlet The National Interest, higher defense budgets will not automatically translate into greater security for NATO. The alliance’s central challenge is not financial but human: a critical shortage of personnel.

Observers noted that military service has lost its appeal among European youth, and a deepening demographic decline is compounding the recruitment crisis. NATO, they argue, currently lacks the manpower to fully implement its regional defense plans. The demographic pressure is stark: in 2022, the European Union recorded fewer than four million births for the first time since 1960, a figure that directly threatens the viability of conscription.

Germany’s military ambitions, despite vast resources, are constrained by cultural resistance to military service. The Bundeswehr has announced plans to increase troop numbers by 30,000, yet experts warn this still falls short of what is needed for effective defense.

Norway faces its own structural challenges. Oslo intends to expand its armed forces significantly, but a small population combined with high personnel turnover undermines long-term readiness.

Italy’s difficulties stem from different factors: low military salaries and weak public support for defense service. Senior commanders have admitted the country’s current troop strength is «insufficient» and public willingness to serve remains minimal.

The United States is not immune to these pressures. Projections show the number of high school graduates could fall by 13% over the next decade and a half. To maintain recruitment levels, Washington plans to widen its intake by targeting women, minorities, and foreign nationals.