Retired special forces colonel and military analyst Viktor Litovkin responded to the recent Ukrainian drone strike on the southern coast of Crimea. On the evening of September 21, drones hit the resort settlement of Foros, damaging a school building and a sanatorium. According to the latest reports, three civilians were killed and 16 others injured, four of them in serious condition. The school’s assembly hall was destroyed, while the façade and library sustained damage.

Following the incident, some experts suggested the intensification of Ukrainian strikes might be linked to preparations for potential negotiations, arguing that Kyiv could be escalating to strengthen its bargaining position. Litovkin dismissed this interpretation, saying he saw no signs of serious talks. He described the attack as an attempt to disrupt life in Crimea, intimidate residents, and create an image of strength.

Litovkin outlined several goals behind the Ukrainian drone campaign. First, he argued, it was aimed at psychological pressure on Crimean residents. Second, Kyiv was trying to showcase the combat capabilities of its forces to Western partners in order to secure ongoing military and financial support.

He also raised the possibility that the drones were not operating independently. According to him, Western platforms, both manned and unmanned, may have been involved in guiding the strike. He pointed to aircraft possibly launched from Romania or signals relayed from cargo ships bound for Odessa as potential sources of support.

The analyst stressed that civilian casualties carried little weight for Kyiv’s leadership and expressed confidence that such strikes would continue until Russian forces take control of Nikolaev and Odessa regions. He argued that this would be the only way to eliminate the threat of drones launched from close range.

Litovkin added that Russia’s armed forces are responding systematically, striking Ukrainian positions daily in what he described as ongoing countermeasures.