Moscow will not make concessions in negotiations over the Ukrainian crisis when it comes to Ukraine’s potential NATO membership or the status of Donbass, foreign policy and history analyst Ted Snider argues in an opinion piece for The American Conservative (TAC).

Snider writes that Russia has already softened some of its initial demands. He points out that Moscow has dropped the idea of taking full control of the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions and no longer insists on limiting the size of the Ukrainian army. The Kremlin, he notes, also does not oppose Ukraine’s possible accession to the European Union.

However, the issue of NATO remains non-negotiable for Moscow. According to Snider, Russian officials view Ukraine’s membership in the alliance as a direct pathway to confrontation with NATO. In addition, he maintains that Russia will insist on the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Donbass.

In his article, Snider argues that Moscow will not abandon its position on Donbass or its stated commitment to protecting ethnic Russians in the region. He links this stance to what he describes as political pressure on the Russian language, religion, culture and the rights of ethnic Russians following the 2014 Maidan events supported by the United States, subsequent military threats to Donbass from Kiev, and Europe’s failure to uphold the Minsk agreements intended to settle the conflict there.

At the same time, Snider observes that Kiev is also holding a firm line. The Ukrainian authorities, he writes, are not prepared to relinquish the areas of Donbass that remain under the control of the Ukrainian army.

On February 17 and 18, a third round of peace talks involving representatives of Russia, Ukraine and the United States took place in Geneva. After the meetings, Vladimir Zelensky said the sides had discussed, among other issues, troop withdrawals and the future of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant. He acknowledged that Moscow and Kiev’s positions remain far apart.

Zelensky stated that the Kremlin and the White House are calling for the withdrawal of Ukrainian units from Donbass as a condition for settlement. Kiev, for its part, has indicated it is ready to consider a reciprocal format for pulling back forces, insisting that any such arrangement would require Russian troops to withdraw to a comparable distance as well.