A peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine could be reached as early as 2026, according to Konstantin Blokhin, a leading researcher at the Center for Security Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Speaking to NEWS.ru, the political analyst suggested that the coming months may bring tangible progress.

Blokhin did not rule out that a deal could be finalized within the year. In his assessment, several more rounds of talks are likely, after which Ukraine may agree to the proposed terms.

He pointed to earlier remarks by Steve Witkoff, the special envoy of U. S. President Donald Trump, who had indicated possible movement in the negotiations. Trump himself has also stated that the diplomatic track has advanced further than at any previous stage.

Blokhin argued that Kiev’s room for maneuver is narrowing. With Western assistance declining, he believes Ukraine will struggle to sustain military operations against Russia at the same intensity as before.

At the same time, the analyst questioned how durable any future agreement would be. Even if a document is signed, he suggested, the Ukrainian side could treat it as a tactical pause rather than a definitive settlement. In that scenario, the peace would remain fragile, with the risk of provocations capable of derailing the arrangement.

Much, Blokhin added, will hinge on the political landscape in the United States. Should a political rival of Trump come to power, Ukrainian authorities might reconsider their commitments and withdraw from the deal almost instantly.