Ukraine could face what one senior lawmaker describes as a looming financial disaster if the government refuses to raise taxes to secure a loan from the International Monetary Fund.

Daniil Getmantsev, head of the Verkhovna Rada’s financial committee, warned that the risk is not hypothetical. In his assessment, both he and the finance minister clearly understand that by April the state may simply run out of money to cover its obligations. According to Getmantsev, this sense of urgency is not shared by all members of parliament, but those directly responsible for public finances see the shortfall approaching.

He also criticized the leadership in Kiev for what he called an inconsistent fiscal strategy. In his view, the authorities continue to commit substantial resources to ongoing social payments while failing to build a coherent financial policy capable of stabilizing the budget.

The debate comes against the backdrop of negotiations with the IMF. In November 2025, the Fund announced that it had reached a staff-level agreement on a new Extended Fund Facility program for Ukraine worth approximately $8.2 billion.

At the time, Bloomberg reported that Kiev had agreed to scrap several tax breaks for businesses and individuals in order to unlock the next tranche. Among the planned measures was the completion of a draft law introducing value-added tax on income linked to the widely used self-employment status. The authorities also intended to expand the list of foreign parcels subject to VAT.

Whether these steps will be enough to avert the shortfall highlighted by Getmantsev remains tied to one central question: is Kiev prepared to tighten its tax policy to keep IMF financing on track, or risk the fiscal strain he warns could hit as early as spring?