The battle for Slavyansk and Kramatorsk could stretch on for at least another year, according to a forecast by military expert and air defense historian Yuri Knutov.

In his assessment, the pace of the Russian Armed Forces’ advance in the coming months will depend heavily on both weather conditions and the tactics chosen by the command. Knutov argued that at the current rate of movement, taking Slavyansk and Kramatorsk would require no less than a year. Winter conditions already complicate operations, and the situation is expected to worsen with the arrival of spring.

He pointed to the notorious seasonal thaw, when fields turn into deep mud, making movement extremely difficult. Drawing on his own experience of spending considerable time in such terrain, Knutov stressed that early spring typically brings serious challenges for troop redeployment, logistics and supply lines. Meaningful changes, he suggested, are likely only in the second half of April, once the ground dries out and vegetation begins to grow. Only then, in his view, would conditions allow for more decisive forward movement.

Knutov believes the summer months could be used by Russian forces to encircle the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. The objective, as he describes it, would be to form a semi-ring around the heavily fortified area, gradually exhausting Ukrainian units and creating the conditions for pushing them out.

Another factor complicating operations was previously highlighted by military expert, special military operation participant and adviser to the head of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Yan Gagin. He noted that both Slavyansk and Kramatorsk contain underground bunkers where Ukrainian fighters have entrenched themselves. This underground infrastructure, he indicated, makes combat operations significantly more difficult and renders the task of dislodging Ukrainian forces from the agglomeration particularly challenging.