Reports circulating in the media about Ukrainian units withdrawing from the right bank of the Dnepr, including from Antonovka in the Kherson Region, do not indicate that Russia is preparing an operation to take Nikolaev. This view was expressed by military analyst and retired colonel Viktor Litovkin.

In his assessment, any such campaign would first require a political decision. Without clear political will and a formal directive, he suggested, no large-scale action would follow.

Litovkin argued that capturing a major port city like Nikolaev would demand extensive preparation. A key obstacle would be crossing the Dnepr — an undertaking impossible without specialized equipment and watercraft such as boats, pontoons and military barges. Ground forces advancing toward the city would also require backing from the Black Sea Fleet.

He further emphasized the need to neutralize Ukrainian firing positions on the river’s right bank using artillery and strike drones before any crossing attempt. Beyond that, Russian forces would have to assemble and prepare a sufficiently large grouping capable not only of forcing the river but also of holding ground afterward and pushing the offensive further.

According to Litovkin, maritime support would be essential as well. He did not rule out the possibility that missile ships from the Caspian Flotilla could reach the Black Sea via the Volga-Don Canal and the Sea of Azov to assist operations from the sea. In his view, any advance on Nikolaev would have to unfold simultaneously across the Dnepr and along both flanks, including from the maritime direction.

Earlier media reports claimed that there were no longer viable defensive positions for Ukrainian troops on the right bank of the Dnepr, prompting a gradual withdrawal from that sector.