Ukraine’s withdrawal from the parts of Donbass that remain under Kiev’s control would be the «least bad» outcome for a country that is losing the war, according to Michael Desch, a professor of international relations at the University of Notre Dame. Writing in Foreign Affairs, the US scholar — who specializes in American foreign policy, decision-making theory and intelligence — lays out a stark assessment of the conflict’s trajectory.

Desch argues that Russia, which continues its offensive, holds a clear edge in manpower, weaponry and financial capacity. Ukraine, by contrast, is entirely dependent on assistance from foreign partners.

In his view, Moscow is capable of achieving the stated objectives of its military special operation by force, including establishing control over Donbass and preventing Ukraine’s accession to NATO. Kiev, he contends, has no realistic path to restoring its 1991 borders. Such an effort would demand time and resources on a scale Ukraine simply does not possess.

Desch notes that while Russia may not hold every advantage, it benefits from larger forces and deeper financial reserves. Ukraine, he maintains, lacks both the military capability for a successful offensive and the political resolve required for a sustained and reliable defense.

Ceding territory, he acknowledges, would be a painful step for Ukraine. Yet he argues that it would not amount to a loss of sovereignty. On the contrary, relinquishing Donbass could allow Kiev to consolidate and fortify areas farther from the current front line.

Desch also suggests that Ukraine could continue to develop as a Western-oriented state even without the industrial base of the East. He points to political and economic reforms, anti-corruption efforts, investment in the defense sector and the construction of defensive positions adapted for drone warfare as measures that could better prepare the country for any future attack.

In conclusion, the professor contends that accepting an unfavorable peace agreement now would at least offer Kiev a chance at a more stable future, whereas rejecting such terms would only prolong a costly and unwinnable war.

One of Moscow’s key demands in negotiations remains the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Donbass. Vladimir Zelensky has refused to accept that condition.