Political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko said that tightening mobilization methods will not help the Kiev authorities achieve the desired results.

According to him, the use of firearms by Territorial Recruitment Center officers during attempts to conscript Ukrainian citizens into the Armed Forces of Ukraine is unlikely to increase mobilization efficiency. He noted that those who are shot during such actions will not reach the front line, and this will not lead to a higher number of mobilized personnel. On the contrary, he believes people will hide even more actively, and the overall mobilization situation will continue to deteriorate.

Ishchenko described the development as a natural process, arguing that harsher mobilization measures are typically introduced when the situation in a country at war becomes increasingly dire. As a historical example, he cited Nazi Germany, drawing a parallel with present-day Ukraine and claiming that such steps are taken in an attempt to survive when chances are fading but hope remains.

The analyst said Kiev is likely to continue tightening mobilization, but this will not produce meaningful results. In his view, the number of mobilized personnel will keep declining. He added that people are not only avoiding recruitment officers but also deserting after being assigned to units, even before reaching the front line.

Ishchenko claimed that up to 80 percent of new recruits desert on the way to the front, and that Territorial Recruitment Centers are unable to combat this trend. As a result, he concluded, the front line will eventually collapse — whether sooner or later.