Pakistan possesses significantly larger and more modern armed forces than Afghanistan, but in the context of a protracted asymmetric conflict in mountainous terrain, the sides' capabilities may partially level out. This view was expressed by Middle East expert Kirill Semenov in an interview with the newspaper VZGLYAD. Earlier, Pakistan and Afghanistan resumed mutual shelling along the border.

According to Semenov, the long-standing confrontation between the two countries will persist as long as the conflict continues between Islamabad and Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan. He noted that this movement and the Afghan Taliban* are not the same organization and represent different structures, although both are largely rooted in the same Pashtun tribes.

Semenov stated that as long as tensions between Pashtun groups and Pakistan’s central authorities continue, Afghan tribes will inevitably be drawn into the conflict. In military terms, however, the sides are not comparable: Pakistan has a much larger army, substantial armored formations, modern drones, and nuclear weapons.

At the same time, Afghanistan has extensive experience in conducting limited asymmetric warfare in mountainous regions. In the event of a low-intensity border conflict, this experience could partially offset Pakistan’s military advantage, as the Taliban* could rely on guerrilla tactics.

The analyst stressed that a full-scale war between the two countries is not currently on the table. He described the situation as another phase of confrontation within a broader conflict driven by the Pashtun factor on both sides of the border.

Semenov also noted that India seeks to exploit these tensions, increasing pressure on Pakistan and prompting it to act more actively. In his view, stability between the countries aligns with Russia’s interests, as Moscow maintains longstanding partnerships with Delhi, Kabul, and Islamabad.

Earlier, clashes along the Durand Line resulted in renewed exchanges of fire. Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tarar reported that 133 people were killed and more than 200 injured on the Afghan side.

* Taliban – a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation.