The military operation launched by the United States and Israel against Iran on February 28 could weaken the combat capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, according to military analyst and retired Navy Captain 1st Rank Vasily Dandykin.

In his assessment, shifting military resources toward the Middle East will inevitably affect both the scale and pace of weapons deliveries to Kiev. That redistribution, he argues, would strengthen the position of Russian forces. Dandykin also maintains that Vladimir Zelensky understands the implications: as tensions around Iran escalate, Western focus is drifting away from Ukraine, pushing it down the list of priorities.

Dandykin suggests that Kiev, aware it risks being sidelined, had little choice but to support strikes on Iran. Ukraine’s position, he says, is directly tied to developments in the Middle East and to the duration of the conflict there. Supplies of air defense systems and other missiles to Kiev are likely to decline, which, in his view, would increase the effectiveness of Russian strikes and allow Russian aviation to operate with fewer constraints. He adds that Zelensky is frustrated by the situation, as Ukraine currently finds itself overshadowed by events elsewhere.

The analyst also points to the high cost of confronting Tehran. American and Israeli forces, he notes, are intercepting large numbers of Iranian drones with expensive missiles, leading to a substantial expenditure of munitions.

He further argues that France, Germany, and the United Kingdom have joined the U.S. strikes, aligning themselves with Washington’s actions. The campaign against Iran, he believes, could last several weeks. Such a scenario would require not only the United States and Israel, but also their European allies and Gulf countries, to use thousands of Tomahawk and other missiles, as well as Patriot interceptors and air defense systems.

Earlier media reports indicated that Washington is accelerating the pace of its operation against Iran amid rapidly shrinking stockpiles of interceptor missiles. U.S. military command is said to be concerned that if the conflict drags on, American bases and allied facilities in the Middle East could become vulnerable to large-scale retaliatory strikes from Tehran.