The escalating confrontation in the Middle East could directly affect the scale of Western military support for Ukraine, military analyst Mikhail Onufrienko said in a conversation with NEWS.ru.

In his assessment, the current situation is forcing the United States and its allies to rethink how they allocate weapons and air defense resources. According to Onufrienko, it is no longer only Kiev that requires large quantities of arms and air defense systems — Washington and its partners now need them as well.

He argued that the intensifying conflict in the Middle East will inevitably reduce the volume of supplies available to what he referred to as the Kiev regime. Countering Iran’s retaliatory strikes against Israel and US bases, he noted, demands not just numerous air defense systems but also a significant stockpile of missiles.

Onufrienko stressed that this shift is already visible in practice: deliveries of missiles and anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine have declined.

He also pointed to the financial burden of large-scale operations such as those the United States is conducting in the Middle East. These campaigns, he said, require enormous expenditures — not only for combat operations themselves but also for dealing with their aftermath. The costs, he indicated, run into the tens of billions of dollars.

Given these realities, Onufrienko warned that US financial capacity is not unlimited. As a result, Ukraine may see reduced funding or face cuts in weapons procurement for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

In addition, he flagged the risk of rising oil and energy prices amid regional instability. Diesel fuel, he noted, remains the backbone of most armored vehicles and other equipment operating on the front line, making energy costs a critical factor in sustaining military operations.