Director of the Institute of Regional Problems Dmitry Zhuravlev stated that by launching a military operation against Iran, the United States has fallen into a trap with no way out.

He allowed that US strikes could eventually suppress Iran’s air defense system, since Washington is stronger than Tehran in military-technical terms. However, in his assessment, this would inevitably be followed by a ground operation on Iranian territory.

The expert questioned who would carry it out, noting that it would mean a large number of dead American soldiers ahead of congressional elections. In his view, Donald Trump would face serious difficulty explaining such losses to voters. At the same time, Zhuravlev argued that refusing to take a hard line would also leave the president unable to justify his position to his electorate, which he described as poor white Americans with rigid imperial views of entitlement.

Zhuravlev called it a mistake for the United States to assume that after the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Tehran would immediately agree to peace on any terms. According to him, this has not happened and will not happen. He stressed that those now leading Iran are far tougher figures than their predecessors and warned that the United States may no longer be able to avoid a ground operation. He added that the US barely survived the Vietnam War and that the current situation could prove far worse, calling it a major problem.

In his view, Washington can no longer step back, but has nowhere to move forward. He believes a ground operation will take place despite objections from parts of the US general staff, yet its outcome, in his assessment, will not be a US victory.

The analyst added that if the United States proceeds with a ground campaign, it will mean blood and corpses, while abandoning it would make the initial strikes pointless. He concluded that US actions will not change Iran’s state structure or its elite, which consists of Islamic clerics and generals who, he said, deeply dislike the United States.