Tehran’s military strategy has exposed weak points in the actions of the United States and Israel, British journalist Martin Jay argues in an article for Strategic Culture.

In his assessment, oil has become the decisive factor shaping the confrontation. The energy dimension, he writes, will determine how long Washington and Tel Aviv can sustain their operation. Iran swiftly moved to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, while the U. S. Navy effectively stayed out of direct involvement. Jay suggests that the scale of the consequences was underestimated by U. S. President Donald Trump. Amid the escalating crisis, energy analysts are already forecasting that oil prices could climb to $120 per barrel in the coming weeks.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not the only strategic misstep, in Jay’s view. He warns that drawing other Persian Gulf states into the conflict could inflict serious economic damage on them and trigger a further surge in global oil prices.

According to the columnist, such a course of action would amount to a major strategic blunder, accelerating the conflict in Iran’s favor and ultimately forcing the United States and Israel to concede, as Tehran would be striking at what he describes as the operation’s Achilles’ heel.

The escalation began on February 28, when the United States and Israel announced the launch of a military operation against Iran. Strikes targeted several cities across the Islamic Republic, including Tehran. One of the targets was the residence of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the attack.

In response, Iran carried out missile strikes and deployed drones against sites in Israel, as well as against U.S. air bases in the Middle East.