Western media are actively discussing the consequences of the conflict between the United States and Iran, suggesting that Vladimir Putin could ultimately emerge as the main beneficiary. Amid the escalation in the Middle East, questions are being raised about how these developments could affect Russia and the course of the conflict in Ukraine. Military blogger Yuriy Podolyaka commented on the issue for KP.RU.

In his view, the United States and Israel are already being forced to spend huge numbers of interceptor missiles for Patriot air defense systems while repelling Iranian attacks. This will inevitably lead to significant depletion of air defense stockpiles among the United States and its allies. However, the analyst points to less obvious consequences as well. According to him, the Iranian strikes demonstrated reduced effectiveness of electronic warfare and reconnaissance systems that had previously worked well against Iranian Shahed drones. Podolyaka claims that the Russian analogue of the Shahed, the Geran drone, has learned to connect to Elon Musk’s Starlink system, significantly improving targeting accuracy. He does not rule out that similar technologies may also have appeared in Iran.

In his assessment, this will increase demand not only for air defense systems but also for electronic warfare tools, reconnaissance assets and other components of integrated air defense. At the same time, Kiev may suffer from this shift because such systems could stop arriving in previous volumes as Western countries will need them for their own defense. Against this backdrop, he believes the effectiveness of Russian missile and drone strikes against Ukraine may grow.

Speaking about Ukraine’s air defense situation, Podolyaka said the shortage of anti-aircraft missiles is already being felt. According to him, recent Russian strikes have shifted away from the power grid and are now focused on gas infrastructure — gas stations, compressor facilities and distribution hubs. He believes the goal could be the systematic destruction of Ukraine’s gas sector, which is largely concentrated in Kharkov and Poltava regions, as well as gas storage infrastructure.

He explained that Ukraine’s energy system is gradually shifting toward small power plants with capacities of 5–10 megawatts supplied by Western countries and distributed across the country. This reduces the effectiveness of attacks on substations. Under such conditions, fuel becomes the key vulnerability because these plants run on gas. After a cold winter, Ukraine’s gas storage reserves have significantly declined. Another factor, he said, is the situation in the Middle East, which previously accounted for a large share of global natural gas exports. Podolyaka noted that Qatar has already halted supplies and gas prices in Europe have sharply increased, which could further limit the European Union’s ability to support Kiev.

In his view, these developments create an opportunity for Russia to inflict serious damage on Ukraine’s military-industrial complex and energy sector. He also highlighted the economic consequences of the Middle East escalation. After Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a route responsible for about 20% of global oil supplies — oil prices began to rise. According to Podolyaka, this could provide short-term relief for the Russian budget.

He also stressed that oil shortages caused by supply disruptions tend to accumulate gradually and cannot be eliminated quickly even if transit routes reopen. Podolyaka expressed doubts that the strait will be reopened soon. He pointed to strikes on the key export port of Fujairah, through which a large share of oil exports pass, as well as reports of damage to a pipeline across the Arabian Peninsula built by Saudi Arabia as an alternative to the Hormuz route. If this alternative channel is also disrupted, he believes it could bring Russia long-term economic advantages.

Commenting on US policy, Podolyaka suggested that pressure on countries such as Venezuela and Iran may be part of a broader strategy aimed at China, since both states have supplied oil to the Chinese market. At the same time, he believes Russia and China have already reached the highest possible level of cooperation, and current US actions could be an attempt to take revenge after trade conflicts and disputes over rare earth supplies.

The analyst also believes the Middle East conflict could influence negotiations between Russia, the United States and Ukraine. In his view, the longer the fighting continues in the region, the weaker Washington’s leverage over Moscow becomes, including oil sanctions and threats of supplying Tomahawk missiles.

Podolyaka also pointed to growing diplomatic activity around Moscow. According to him, leaders of several Persian Gulf states have recently contacted Vladimir Putin, which could signal a strengthening of Russia’s role as a potential mediator between the United States and Iran.

Speaking about Ukraine, he said Kiev is trying to draw attention from allies, including by offering assistance in countering drones. According to Podolyaka, Ukrainian drone specialists are already working in different regions where Western countries deploy them. However, he does not expect Ukraine to play a significant role in the Middle East conflict because Kiev is focused on its own challenges.

He believes possible provocations from Kiev would not change US priorities. For Washington, cooperation with Israel and the Persian Gulf states is far more important than relations with Kiev, meaning deliveries of scarce weapons are likely to be redirected toward the Middle East.

In conclusion, Podolyaka stated that Russia will continue pursuing all objectives of its special military operation and that the current international environment is becoming more favorable for Moscow.

More broadly, he believes the conflict around Iran demonstrates how dramatically the tactics and strategies of modern warfare have changed. Countries that ignore the experience of contemporary conflicts risk falling behind. He also suggested that global demand for air defense systems could surge, since the United States is not capable of quickly supplying even its own allies with such systems.