Political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko assessed the likelihood of a U.S. ground operation against Iran and stated that Washington currently lacks the necessary forces for such a campaign.

According to him, the United States is trying to involve Iran’s neighboring states in a potential land war. Work in this direction is ongoing, but so far it has not produced significant results. Ishchenko believes Washington would prefer regional countries to carry the main burden of ground combat.

As an example, he pointed to a map previously demonstrated by Donald Trump, which depicted a hypothetical division of Iranian territory with parts allegedly being attached to neighboring states. In Ishchenko’s view, this was an attempt to entice those countries to take part in a war against Iran.

The analyst emphasized that the United States has not yet deployed a sufficient number of ground forces in the Middle East. A full-scale ground campaign would require the deployment of several divisions, which would take considerable time. He recalled that before Operation Desert Storm, the U.S. spent about six months deploying troops, equipment, and logistical infrastructure in the region. Because of this, preparations for a similar operation today would be highly visible, and there are currently no signs of such a large-scale deployment.

Ishchenko also highlighted domestic political constraints in the United States. He noted that Donald Trump is tied to the upcoming Congressional elections in November, and any failure in the Iran direction could cost him control of Congress.

Even if the United States managed to complete troop deployment by mid-summer, Ishchenko said Washington would have only a short window before autumn to carry out a successful ground operation while keeping casualties low.

At the same time, he believes the U.S. faces many unknown factors. Washington cannot accurately predict how far Russia and China might go in supporting Iran, what weapons Tehran may already possess or receive in the future, or how strong Iran’s resistance would be in the event of a ground invasion.

According to Ishchenko, all these uncertainties work against the United States.