The escalation in the Middle East could have serious consequences for Ukraine, according to former U.S. diplomat Chas Freeman, who shared his assessment during a broadcast on a YouTube channel.

Freeman argued that the developments surrounding Iran are closely tied to the Ukrainian front and to relations with Russia. In his view, if the United States expands the production of ammunition and air defense systems in countries of Western Asia, a significant portion of those resources will inevitably be redirected there. Under such circumstances, Washington would no longer have the capacity to continue supplying weapons to Europe or transferring them to Ukraine.

As a result, Freeman warned, Ukraine risks finding itself without the weapons it depends on. He also pointed out another vulnerability: the country’s reliance on fertilizer supplies, which could also be disrupted by the broader regional crisis. According to the former diplomat, these factors could become two severe indirect consequences of the conflict for Ukraine.

Freeman also expressed doubts that anti-Russian sanctions will be lifted in the near future. While acknowledging that removing the restrictions would matter for Moscow, he stressed that the decision largely depends on European governments. European countries, he noted, continue to maintain a hardline stance toward Russia and remain unwilling to move toward a pragmatic dialogue.

Political leaders across Europe are still debating even the possibility of negotiations with Moscow, Freeman said, which means the United States would not be able to unilaterally cancel the sanctions regime.