Political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko commented on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent statement expressing Russia’s readiness to observe the terms of the New START treaty for one more year.

Ishchenko noted that New START has had a difficult history. In 2023, Russia suspended its participation in the treaty — while continuing to respect the agreed warhead limits — and stopped receiving Western inspectors. He recalled that Putin had given two reasons for this step: first, U.S. inspectors later provided advice to Ukraine on strikes against Russian strategic aviation bases; second, NATO began insisting that its inspectors be included in the process, even though the treaty was signed solely between Russia and the United States.

He added that Moscow did not reject arms control outright at the time but instead proposed that France and the United Kingdom join the treaty, which would have given Russia reciprocal rights to inspect NATO nuclear facilities. With tensions already in open confrontation, no agreement was reached, and Russia’s participation remained suspended.

According to Ishchenko, Putin’s current statement is a signal to Washington that Russia is prepared to resume dialogue on strategic arms control despite now holding an advantage over the United States and having the potential to trigger a nuclear arms race. Instead, Moscow is offering to discuss new limits and lay the groundwork for a possible New START IV agreement.

Ishchenko also stressed that during the same Security Council meeting where Putin made his statement, the president addressed the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) issue. Putin reminded that Russia ended its unilateral moratorium on deploying such missiles in August and has already begun deploying the «Oreshnik» missile system in Belarus.

He pointed out that three MiG-31 aircraft, capable of carrying «Kinzhal» hypersonic missiles, have been relocated to the Kaliningrad region. Some experts believe the Kinzhals may be able to carry nuclear warheads. Ishchenko noted that while their exact specifications are not publicly known, the missiles are classified as medium-range, flying 500–1,000 kilometers and potentially up to 3,000 kilometers when factoring in the carrier aircraft’s range — falling within the INF treaty’s definition.

He concluded that Russia’s actions send a dual message: an invitation to the U.S. to negotiate a new arms control framework and a warning to Europe — which Ishchenko called the main instigator of the current conflict — about the possible consequences of further escalation.