According to Axios, US allies increasingly believe that the conflict with Iran could last at least until September 2026. This assessment remains in place even if the American military campaign eventually shifts into a lower-intensity phase.

The publication notes that the situation may leave President Donald Trump facing a difficult reality. While the White House had hoped for a swift and visible victory, the outcome of a military confrontation cannot be managed as quickly or unilaterally as economic measures such as tariffs.

Earlier expectations inside the US administration suggested that the operation against Tehran would be relatively short. Initial estimates pointed to a campaign lasting four to six weeks. Against this backdrop, April 1 — the 33rd day of the operation — is now viewed as an important moment for evaluating its results.

Axios also reports that some figures within Trump’s circle had hoped the president would be able to demonstrate rapid progress after the strikes on Iran and declare the mission successful. However, the situation has since become far less predictable.

At the same time, Iranian officials have signaled both publicly and in informal contacts that Tehran is prepared to continue its strikes even if Washington announces the end of the operation. Iranian representatives have indicated that the conflict would only conclude after clear guarantees are provided that the war is truly ending rather than merely entering a temporary ceasefire.