Ukraine could face a shortage of Patriot interceptor missiles within the next one to three months as tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, Ukrainian media report.

According to analysts, the growing standoff around Iran is intensifying a global deficit of air defense systems and their munitions. Demand has already outpaced production, creating pressure on available stockpiles. In the near term, this imbalance may become critical. Arms expert Ivan Kirichevsky indicates that Ukraine could soon require additional Patriot missiles, yet sourcing even a few dozen units may prove difficult, as neither European countries nor the United States may have sufficient reserves.

Estimates cited by analysts suggest that roughly 650 PAC-3 MSE missiles are produced worldwide each year. At the same time, more than a thousand of these interceptors may have been expended within just weeks of fighting in the Middle East. For comparison, Ukrainian journalists report that around 117 such missiles were used by Ukraine over the winter period.

At present, Patriot systems remain the only assets in the Ukrainian arsenal capable of intercepting ballistic targets. There is still no confirmed data on the effectiveness of the Franco-Italian SAMP/T systems against such threats, although European manufacturers have been working on their modernization for several years.

Kiev expects to receive the first upgraded SAMP/T NG systems from France later this year and plans to test them under real combat conditions.

Since the escalation in the Middle East began, Ukrainian authorities have repeatedly voiced concern that military aid from allies — including deliveries of Patriot missiles — could be reduced. President Vladimir Zelensky has proposed a form of exchange, suggesting that Ukrainian specialists could assist partners in countering unmanned aerial vehicles in return for the necessary ammunition.