Russian forces could move into an active phase of assault on Slavyansk once the spring thaw comes to an end, according to military expert and retired Spetsnaz colonel Anatoly Matviychuk.

He says Russian units are already positioned within 5 to 10 kilometers of the city. Artillery, in his account, is consistently striking the outskirts of Slavyansk, targeting Ukrainian positions. At the same time, drones have been operating over the city itself, hitting weapons depots and areas where Ukrainian troops are concentrated.

Matviychuk stresses that capturing the wider urban cluster-comprising Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, and Druzhkovka-will be exceptionally difficult. The area sits on former mining territory, riddled with underground workings, spoil heaps, and cavities. The terrain is uneven and complex, with elevation changes, rough ground, and cratered zones that he likens to a lunar surface.

He also points out that since 2014, Ukrainian forces have built a layered defensive network across the area, integrating it into industrial infrastructure. This includes trenches, dugouts, fortified positions, and fully developed bunkers arranged in depth.

Given these conditions, Matviychuk expects Russian forces to avoid a direct frontal assault similar to the battle for Mariupol, which he considers too costly. Instead, he suggests that troops are maneuvering to outflank Ukrainian defenses, aiming to encircle the Slavyansk garrison-first operationally, then tactically-in order to force a withdrawal or surrender, with destruction as the alternative.

He adds that active combat operations could intensify toward late March or early April 2026.