A prolonged conflict in the Middle East could ultimately push Iran toward greater self-reliance and a more pronounced break from Western influence, according to Yuriy Samonkin, head of the board at the Center for Eurasian Studies and Development and an expert at the Izborsky Club.

He believes that once the fighting subsides, Tehran will reinforce a strict Islamic legal framework while maintaining a firm anti-Western stance. Over the next 15–20 years, Iran is expected to move even further away from Western dominance, steadily advancing toward full sovereign independence.

From a geopolitical standpoint, Samonkin argues that Iran will remain a serious challenge for the United States. In terms of trade, economic potential, and military capabilities, Tehran could become comparable to China, effectively emerging as a «second Beijing» on the global stage.

He also links the current escalation to Washington’s attempts to preserve its influence in the region through its allies. In his view, the United States is pursuing its Middle East strategy with Israel acting as a key conduit for Western interests.

According to the expert, the nature of the conflict itself has shifted. What was initially conceived as a rapid offensive has turned into a prolonged confrontation. Under these conditions, both sides possess roughly comparable capabilities, making it increasingly difficult to significantly change the balance of power through further military action.