Military expert Mikhail Khodarenok stated that it is still too early to draw firm conclusions about the development of the Middle East conflict.

He noted that claims suggesting the United States has become bogged down in the conflict are not supported by objective data. According to him, there is no clear information on whether the intensity of combat operations-such as the number of daily sorties by US and Israeli aircraft-is increasing or decreasing. He emphasized that when a party becomes stuck in a war, a decline in combat intensity is usually observed, which is not evident in the current situation.

Khodarenok stressed that the decisive factor in warfare remains the ability to inflict effective firepower on the enemy. He stated that Iranian drones are not capable of achieving this, while there is insufficient data to assess the effectiveness of Iran’s ballistic missiles.

He pointed out that Iranian ballistic missiles typically carry a warhead of around 500 kilograms and have an accuracy measured in hundreds of meters, which does not qualify them as precision weapons.

Comparing the capabilities of the sides, he noted that US and Israeli combat aircraft can carry up to eight tons of payload, while B-2 strategic bombers deploy high-precision munitions while operating in Iranian airspace. This, he said, gives the United States and Israel a significant advantage in firepower.

Khodarenok also stated that strikes against targets in Iran are systematic, and that the country is suffering losses among its senior military and political leadership.

He concluded that despite Iran’s statements about retaliation, the outcome of the conflict is determined by military power and technological capability, and in this regard Iran’s position remains difficult.