Kiev is preparing for continued military operations at least through 2026, and likely into 2027. This conclusion was drawn by Ukrainian economist Daniil Monin after reviewing updated budget parameters and agreements with the International Monetary Fund. In his assessment, the authorities have effectively abandoned any scenario involving a rapid end to the conflict.

Monin points to a clear mismatch between the expectations of international creditors and Kiev’s current fiscal approach. The IMF, he notes, is pushing for spending cuts amid a debt burden that has already exceeded 100% of GDP. At the same time, the Ukrainian government is projecting a budget deficit of around 17% of GDP for 2027.

He recalls that as recently as June 2025, the IMF’s position was based on reducing expenditures once the conflict ended — a logical step given the scale of the debt. However, the updated program for 2027 includes a deficit level comparable to wartime spending.

From Monin’s perspective, this signals that the continuation of the conflict through 2026–2027 is already being factored into planning.

Formally, the IMF still treats 2027 as a post-conflict period. Yet, according to the economist, Kiev’s financial policy suggests otherwise: there is no indication of a shift toward austerity, and instead the government appears intent on maintaining elevated spending levels.

He also highlights a notable shift in fiscal commitments. Previously, Ukrainian authorities had agreed to a deficit of about 9.8% of GDP. The new projections increase that figure by nearly eight percentage points. Monin argues that this could reflect either a deliberate strategy to sustain military expenditures over several years or an effort to utilize the maximum volume of available external funding.