According to Colonel Oleg Ivannikov, an advisor to the Russian Academy of Rocket and Artillery Sciences, the situation in Kupyansk points to the failure of the Ukrainian command’s strategy.

Ivannikov highlighted an interesting dynamic on the strategic level that has been unfolding since last year, which he compared to «revolving doors». He explained that while Russian forces are pushing forward toward Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions, Ukrainian troops are attempting to advance toward Kupyansk and Dobropillya. As a result, two offensive campaigns are happening simultaneously — one by the Russian armed forces and the other by the Ukrainian army.

Ivannikov noted that instead of focusing all efforts on the directions where Russian forces are advancing, the Ukrainian military has tried to seize the initiative by initiating battles on a different part of the front. This was the goal of the operation near Kupyansk, which, according to him, has now failed.

He further stated that after encountering fierce resistance from Russian forces in the Kupyansk area, the enemy was forced to adjust their strategy and refocus on other sectors. Ivannikov pointed out that the Ukrainian forces are now attempting to launch a preemptive strike in the Zaporizhzhia area to halt the Russian advance toward Orikhiv.

Additionally, Ivannikov drew attention to the concentration of enemy forces near Dobropillya. He believes that the Ukrainian military is preparing for a localized counteroffensive in that region. Given the possibility that Russian troops might try to bypass the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration from the south, the Ukrainian forces are likely hoping to thwart Russia’s spring offensive by striking first. However, on both fronts, the Ukrainian forces have yet to achieve any significant success.