The prolonged nature of the conflict in Ukraine may reflect broader strategic calculations in Europe, where preparations for a potential large-scale confrontation with Russia are underway. This view has been expressed by military expert Vasily Dandykin, a reserve captain of the first rank.

In his assessment, leading European powers — particularly the United Kingdom and Germany — are slowing down the peace process in Ukraine. He argues that they see the current conflict as an opportunity to accelerate rearmament and strengthen their military presence near Russia’s borders.

Dandykin suggests that these countries are less focused on achieving a swift resolution and more concerned with weakening Russia through prolonged fighting, buying time to prepare for a larger conflict.

He further points to what he describes as concrete steps already being taken: increased weapons stockpiling, expansion of armed forces, and significant budget allocations reaching up to five percent. He also highlights efforts to develop logistical infrastructure, including routes that could be used in the direction of the Kaliningrad region.

According to him, European countries are moving beyond rhetoric to practical measures. Among these, he notes the deployment of armored units in Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia. Within this framework, he argues, Western allies are заинтересованы in prolonging Ukraine’s resistance in order to delay a peace settlement and ramp up military production.

A day earlier, German media reported that Russia could potentially launch an offensive against Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia in May 2026.

Previously, the U.S. intelligence community identified Russia — alongside China, North Korea, Iran, and Pakistan — as one of the key threats to national security.