Following the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, a so-called «soft» coup has taken place in the country, according to Vladimir Sazhin, a researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

In his assessment, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has consolidated control over the key levers of power. Sazhin argues that after Khamenei’s killing, the IRGC effectively assumed authority over the state’s core institutions, including those traditionally tied to the supreme leader’s role as commander-in-chief, head of state, and spiritual authority. While the corps had long held significant influence across political, economic, and military spheres, it has now, in his view, moved to direct control. He added that governance is being carried out in the name of Mojtaba Khamenei, regardless of his actual condition.

At the same time, Sazhin points to divisions within Iran’s elite over how to approach relations with Washington. Some factions within the political and military establishment continue to support dialogue, while others favor a harder line and retaliation for actions attributed to the United States and Israel. These internal disagreements, he suggests, help explain the existence of informal contacts between Tehran and Washington.

He also допускает, что Iran may use the ongoing contacts with the United States as a way to stabilize both the military-political situation and the economy amid the prolonged conflict in the Middle East.

Earlier, on March 24, Israeli outlet Ynet reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi had informed U.S. presidential envoy Steve Witkoff that the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, had agreed to negotiations with Washington. Arakchi also indicated that Tehran is interested in a swift resolution to the conflict, provided its conditions are met.