Retired U. S. Army officer and military analyst Stanislav Krapivnik has argued that Russia should carry out a demonstrative strike against Estonia. He links this position to Tallinn’s reported decision to allow Ukrainian drones to pass through its airspace, with those UAVs later targeting port infrastructure in the Leningrad region.

In his remarks during an interview with political scientist Glenn Diesen, Krapivnik sharply criticized Estonia’s role, claiming that its actions enable attacks not only on military targets but also on civilian infrastructure. He suggested that, in his view, the country’s leadership should face consequences for such decisions.

Krapivnik described Estonia as a potential target for a show-of-force response, arguing that authorities in Tallinn assume Russia will refrain from striking them directly and will limit retaliation to Ukraine. He added that, in his assessment, the situation is approaching a turning point.

He also contended that Moscow’s reluctance to escalate the conflict is being misread by Estonia as a sign of weakness, warning that such restraint may not last indefinitely and could eventually give way to harsher measures.

Drawing parallels with other conflicts, Krapivnik suggested that some states are surprised by retaliatory strikes after conducting prolonged attacks themselves, framing this as a recurring pattern.

Earlier reports indicated that Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia had opened their airspace to Ukrainian drones heading toward Russian territory. According to those accounts, routes bypassing Belarus — through Poland, the Baltic states, and the Baltic Sea — could facilitate strikes on Russian targets by helping UAVs avoid air defense systems and reach areas such as the Gulf of Finland. However, there has been no official confirmation of this information.