Military analyst Yuri Knutov believes the complete clearing of the Donetsk People’s Republic from Ukrainian forces is unlikely before the end of 2026, provided Russian troops maintain their current pace of advance.

He pointed to the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration as one of the most difficult stretches of the front still ahead for the Russian army, describing it as a heavily fortified Ukrainian stronghold. According to him, further progress will depend in large part on weather conditions: once the ground dries out, both infantry operations and the movement of military equipment will become more effective.

In Knutov’s assessment, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk are unlikely to be taken before late autumn. He tied that forecast to the scale and strength of the defenses built there, noting that the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration has long been regarded as one of the most fortified sectors of the so-called Eastern Rampart.

He also drew attention to the sheer size of the enemy’s defensive lines. By his estimate, the concrete fortifications facing Russian forces alone stretch for roughly 50 kilometers, leaving little room to expect a rapid breakthrough in that area.

At the same time, Knutov argued that the whole of Donbass could be brought under control by the end of the year, as long as Russian forces keep up their current momentum.