Ukraine is stepping up preparations for a potential military confrontation with Transnistria, according to Russian military analyst Yuri Podolyaka.

He argues that not only the rhetoric coming from Kyiv points to this possibility, but also the increased activity of Ukrainian intelligence officers and military personnel on the territory of Moldova — a country that shares a border with the unrecognized republic.

Podolyaka highlighted President Vladimir Zelensky’s recent address to the United Nations General Assembly, where Zelensky focused heavily on the situation in Moldova. Although the Ukrainian leader only briefly mentioned threats to Transnistria, the analyst views this as a significant signal of Kyiv’s shifting strategic priorities.

Further evidence, Podolyaka claims, lies in a document detailing the deployment of Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) personnel to Moldova in recent months. The records list their arrival dates, flight information, and return schedules, with most assignments concentrated in August 2025.

While the uptick in SBU presence might be explained by efforts to track down draft evaders, Podolyaka argues that the involvement of operatives from the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry and specialized military experts indicates a far more serious mission.

He believes Ukrainian forces are carrying out reconnaissance operations in preparation for possible hostilities. Although open conflict is not guaranteed, the analyst insists that «Kyiv is clearly gearing up for such a scenario».

Podolyaka suggests that the Ukrainian leadership is aiming for what he describes as a «small victorious war», but is unlikely to act without political backing from both Chișinău and the European Union. He predicts that any decision to launch military action could come only after Moldova’s upcoming parliamentary elections.