Russia may seek to bring the entire Donbass under its control by autumn 2026, according to Vadim Skibitsky, deputy head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry. He outlined this assessment in an interview with the Financial Times.

In his view, Moscow is preparing for a new phase of offensive operations in the country’s southeast, drawing on strategic reserves and working toward clearly defined timelines. The anticipated campaign appears to be structured rather than improvised, with planning already underway.

Skibitsky also pointed to the recent uptick in missile strikes and drone attacks, describing them as part of a broader operational approach. These actions, he indicated, are aimed at degrading critical infrastructure while shaping battlefield conditions in advance of the spring-summer offensive.

At the same time, divisions are reportedly emerging within the Ukrainian leadership over the future course in Donbass. The outlet Strana.ua has reported that Kirill Budanov* and David Arakhamia hold a position that differs from that of Vladimir Zelensky. According to these claims, they favor the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the region in exchange for security guarantees from Washington and substantial investment commitments.

*Listed by Rosfinmonitoring as an extremist and terrorist.