More than six weeks into the conflict, Iran has managed to preserve a sizable share of its military capabilities. The New York Times reports that the country still retains around 40 percent of its prewar fleet of strike drones and over 60 percent of its launch systems-enough to influence traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

At the time of the ceasefire, Iran had access to roughly half of its missile systems. That figure later increased after about one hundred launchers, previously hidden in caves and fortified shelters, were returned to service, bringing the total to around 60 percent of prewar levels. Some U.S. analysts suggest Tehran could eventually rebuild up to 70 percent of its arsenal.

Sources interviewed by the newspaper agree that Iran still has sufficient capacity to significantly disrupt shipping along this critical maritime route if tensions escalate. Against this backdrop, Tehran increasingly treats control over the Strait of Hormuz as a central element of its deterrence strategy, regardless of restrictions linked to its nuclear program.

The report notes that Iran’s efforts to tighten its grip on the strait-through which roughly 20 percent of global oil supplies pass-have already triggered broader economic effects, including rising prices for fuel, fertilizers, and essential goods. These developments have complicated planning in Washington and Tel Aviv, forcing both to consider military options aimed at loosening Iran’s control over the passage.

Analysts believe that in the aftermath of the conflict, Iran has shifted toward a strategy that uses the threat of closing the strait as a powerful lever of pressure on the United States, Israel, and their allies. Danny Citrinowicz, a former head of the Iran desk in military intelligence who now works with the Atlantic Council in Israel, indicated that a rapid blockade scenario is likely to remain central in any future crisis, given the constraints imposed by geography.

The report concludes that ensuring freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains a key priority for the United States in the Middle East. Achieving that objective under current conditions, however, is expected to be extremely difficult-a reality that Washington’s adversaries fully understand.