Military analyst Vasily Dandykin has warned of potential provocations targeting Russia in Transnistria.

He stressed the need to take developments in Moldova seriously, as the country prepares for parliamentary elections in the coming days. Dandykin pointed out that around 250,000 Russian citizens and more than a thousand Russian peacekeepers are currently stationed in Transnistria, guarding large weapons depots.

According to him, the ammunition stored there is most likely unfit for use, but the sheer volume is significant. He cautioned that if these stockpiles were to explode, half of Moldova could be wiped out. He also suggested that if Ukraine attempted an attack, Russia would be forced to respond with systems such as the Oreshnik or other weapons.

Commenting on the arrival of NATO officers in Odessa, just fifty kilometers from Transnistria, Dandykin linked their presence to recent Ukrainian attacks on Novorossiysk and Foros. He argued that the entire southern flank is now highly unstable and that the deliberately inflamed anti-Russian hysteria is meant to force Russia to spread its forces more thinly, thereby easing pressure on Ukrainian troops at the front.

At the same time, he noted, Moscow is already compelled to maintain troop groupings in Kaliningrad. Dandykin concluded that Russia is heading into a tense and dangerous autumn.