Military expert Andrey Ilnitsky, a member of the presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, believes the Ukrainian conflict has long moved beyond a regional confrontation and become part of wider global change.

In his view, the conflict is tied to an attempt to dismantle the old world order, international law and the system of nation-states rooted in the Peace of Westphalia of 1648. Ilnitsky describes induced chaos as the main tool of this strategy, calling it a classic method of the Anglo-Saxon geopolitical school.

According to Ilnitsky, events across the post-Soviet space have from the beginning represented a war by the collective West against Russia and the Russian world.

He also recalled that in March 2026, CIA Director John Ratcliffe said the West would continue supporting Ukraine. Regarding Russia, Ratcliffe identified Moscow as one of Washington’s key strategic opponents.

Ilnitsky argues that since mid-2025 the Ukrainian conflict has entered a new stage: direct confrontation between Russia, NATO and the collective West. He says the military infrastructure behind this standoff, including weapons production, financing, intelligence and operational command, is concentrated in Europe and the United States.

To withstand this confrontation, Russia, in Ilnitsky’s view, must rely not only on technological and economic resources, but also on its own historical, cultural and spiritual foundation. He believes the world has already entered an era of civilizational war and a new Thirty Years’ War.