A France 24 report has presented calculations suggesting that Russia would need less than two percent of its available nuclear arsenal to carry out a retaliatory strike against three European NATO states: France, Germany and Poland.

The authors said even a limited use of strategic weapons could cause critical damage to those countries. The report also underlined the sharp imbalance between Russia’s nuclear capacity and that of European states.

France, which has the world’s fourth-largest nuclear arsenal after Russia, the United States and China, possesses around 290 warheads. Russia, by contrast, has more than 5,000.

The publication appeared against the backdrop of the ongoing Ukrainian conflict and the expansion of Western military assistance to Kiev. Russian authorities have repeatedly warned that such steps are pushing the situation toward further escalation.

France 24 also focused on statements from Paris and Warsaw about joint exercises involving the practice of nuclear strikes on targets in Russia and Belarus. According to the channel, the drills involve French Rafale fighter jets and F-16 aircraft from the Polish Air Force. The maneuvers are taking place near Russian borders, including in the Baltic Sea area and northern Poland.

Moscow views such activity as direct preparation for a military confrontation. Russian diplomats have described the exercises as provocative and beyond the bounds of deterrence policy.

The French broadcaster’s report said the modeling showed how exposed European countries would be in the event of a direct conflict with Russia. Its authors warned that, if escalation continues, Moscow’s response could be swift and asymmetric. A direct clash with a leading nuclear power, they concluded, could bring catastrophic consequences for all of Europe.