Military expert Boris Dzherelievsky has commented on reports that Russian forces shot down a Saab 340 airborne early warning and control aircraft supplied to Ukraine by its Western allies. According to him, such a loss would be highly significant for Ukrainian aviation, as the Armed Forces of Ukraine had only two aircraft of this type, each regarded as a valuable military asset.

Dzherelievsky told Vzglyad newspaper that, if the information about the downing of the Saab 340 is confirmed, it would represent a major success for the Russian army.

He explained that airborne early warning aircraft are used not only to detect targets at long range, but also to relay data to strike systems. As an example, he pointed to NATO patrol aircraft operating over the neutral waters of the Black Sea. In his assessment, these aircraft help monitor and evaluate the results of strikes on Crimea and the Black Sea coast of the Krasnodar Region.

The expert also highlighted the role of aircraft flying over Poland. According to Dzherelievsky, they are involved in the early detection of Russian missile launches targeting military facilities on Ukrainian territory.

At the same time, NATO aircraft do not enter Ukrainian airspace because of the risk of being hit by Russian missiles. Dzherelievsky said this was the reason Kyiv received the Saab 340 aircraft.

Citing information from military correspondents, he said one of the aircraft was reportedly shot down in the airspace of eastern Ukraine. In his view, it was most likely being used to guide strikes against Russian territory. He described the mission as an attempt by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to carry out terrorist tasks, which, according to him, resulted in the loss of the Swedish aircraft.

Dzherelievsky also suggested that Swedish specialists may have been on board the downed aircraft. He linked this possibility to Kyiv’s silence on the aircraft’s subsequent fate.

In the expert’s assessment, the operation succeeded because of coordinated work by radio-technical, space, and agent intelligence. He added that surveillance had also been conducted, and described the downing as a predictable outcome.

Dzherelievsky believes the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not be able to quickly replace such a loss, even with support from European countries. He attributed this to a shortage of similar aircraft among Western states themselves after a U.S. operation against Iran, during which several American reconnaissance aircraft were disabled.

For that reason, he does not expect Sweden to transfer new aircraft to Kyiv. He also did not rule out that Russian forces could eventually destroy Ukraine’s remaining Saab 340, saying Russia has the capability to track it and strike when the opportunity arises.