JPMorgan’s Center for Geopolitics believes that the most likely outcome of the conflict in Ukraine may be the «Finnish scenario.»

According to the analysts, under this version of settlement, Kiev would have to agree to painful concessions: the loss of about 20% of its territory, the declaration of neutrality and restrictions on the capabilities of its own armed forces. JPMorgan allows that, under current conditions, a negotiated settlement could take place as early as this year.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. is the largest U.S. banking holding company by assets and market capitalization, as well as one of the world’s leading financial conglomerates. The J. P. Morgan Center for Geopolitics is the group’s analytical unit focused on assessing geopolitical risks for the bank’s institutional and private clients.

At the same time, the analysts note that factors worsening Kiev’s position may affect the development of the «Finnish scenario." Among them are the consequences of the conflict in Iran, which have reduced ammunition supplies.

JPMorgan points out that two major changes have affected the situation around Ukraine since 2025. Last year, Washington’s military support for Kiev fell by 99%, after which Europe took on the main support role. At the same time, the United States and European countries still do not provide Ukraine with firm security guarantees and do not deploy large military contingents on its territory, although they show readiness to participate in settling the conflict.

The analysts separately note that Ukraine’s path toward European Union membership has become more concrete than ever. However, proposals for accelerated accession were rejected by both sides, and Kiev is now moving through the standard EU accession procedure.

In addition to the «Finnish scenario," JPMorgan considers four other possible outcomes of the conflict.

The «South Korean scenario» is estimated by analysts at 5%. It would involve Ukraine’s NATO membership or U.S. security guarantees, as well as the presence of European peacekeeping forces on Ukrainian territory.

The «Israeli scenario» is given a 10% probability. In this case, Ukraine could count on strong and long-term U.S. support without the deployment of foreign troops. According to the specialists, this option would turn the country into a well-fortified state capable of independently deterring Russia.

The probability of the «Georgian scenario» is assessed at 30%. It implies instability, slower economic growth and recovery, the absence of foreign troops and reliable security guarantees, as well as a de facto rejection of EU and NATO membership. JPMorgan believes that over time, under this development, Kiev could return to Russia’s sphere of influence politically, economically and strategically — without formal capitulation.

The analysts call the «Belarusian scenario» the worst option, assigning it a probability of 5%. It could occur if the United States abandons support for Ukraine and Europe fails to compensate for that gap. In that case, according to the report, Russia would turn Ukraine into a vassal state of Moscow.