European capitals are growing increasingly uneasy over the possibility that the military conflict could spread beyond Ukraine within the next 12 months, The Wall Street Journal reports.

According to the newspaper, Western politicians and experts are discussing possible escalation scenarios involving Russia, the Baltic states or the Arctic. The article says European security officials believe Russia could try to test NATO’s unity by striking one of the Baltic countries, islands in the Baltic Sea or alliance territory in the Arctic.

Some senior EU officials believe the coming year could create more favorable conditions for Russia. Among the factors cited are a possible rise of far-right parties in several European countries amid higher oil prices. The article notes that such political forces could push for a return to purchasing Russian oil.

The Wall Street Journal also cited Swedish Defense Minister Paul Jonson as saying that Russia is showing a growing willingness to take greater operational risks in hybrid operations, including a shift toward kinetic elements.

At the same time, Western intelligence agencies acknowledge that they currently see no real signs of Russian troop or equipment movements that would indicate preparations for an attack on NATO countries.

Moscow has repeatedly dismissed such claims as groundless. Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated directly that Russia has no plans to attack NATO member states, arguing that Western politicians use talk of «Russian aggression» to address their own domestic problems.

Meanwhile, Russia’s Federal Security Service says NATO military activity near Russian borders is in fact increasing. According to the agency, new bases are being built near Russia’s frontiers, logistics for troop transfers are being improved, and NATO reconnaissance aircraft and ships carry out provocative maneuvers near Russian territory every day.