Political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko said that the Baltic states are unlikely to face the use of Russian nuclear weapons even in the event of a blockade of Kaliningrad.

According to him, if such a blockade is imposed, Russia will have to quickly and effectively break through a land corridor to its exclave. This route passes through Lithuanian territory, where, in the expert’s view, Russian troops would be stationed after the operation. For that reason, he believes Moscow would not launch nuclear strikes on this area or contaminate it.

Ishchenko noted that the issue of using tactical nuclear weapons could theoretically arise if the operation to unblock Kaliningrad drags on. However, in his opinion, Russia is unlikely to take such a step.

The expert explained that in this scenario Lithuania is viewed as a corridor that Russian troops would have to occupy. In addition, this territory provides access to the Baltic Sea and ensures a connection between Kaliningrad and Petersburg, restoring, in his words, Russia’s normal position in the Baltic direction. Therefore, Ishchenko stressed, Lithuanian territory is not unnecessary for Moscow.

He also added that Russia does not have enough population to simply occupy new territories without further work with local residents, so, in his wording, they would have to be «re-educated.»

Against this background, Ishchenko called talk that Russia would allegedly wipe the Baltic states off the face of the earth with nuclear weapons complete nonsense. At the same time, he considers another scenario quite possible: in the event of a blockade of Kaliningrad, Lithuania could cease to exist as a state.