Russian intelligence has recorded a significant concentration of Ukrainian forces in two key areas of the special military operation zone, suggesting that Kyiv may be preparing for new offensive actions. According to military analyst and retired colonel Viktor Baranets, the build-up is taking place along the Zaporozhye-Kherson axis in the south and in the Chernigov-Sumy direction in the north.

Baranets explained that Russian reconnaissance has observed the movement of Ukrainian troops toward the southern sector, including the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions. At the same time, intelligence reports indicate the redeployment of units — including special forces battalions from the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) — to the Chernigov and Sumy regions. These developments, he said, are consistent with preparations for offensive operations.

The analyst noted that in modern warfare it is almost impossible to secretly amass large formations for a strike. Troop movements, he said, can be effectively monitored using drones and satellite reconnaissance.

Baranets added that one of the clearest signs of an impending offensive is the direction in which Ukrainian forces are most frequently redeployed. He emphasized that Russia’s intelligence network — both legal and covert, including aerial reconnaissance — is operating effectively. Today, he said, even the movement of a single soldier is difficult to conceal, let alone the redeployment of tens of thousands of troops.

Earlier, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee Alexey Zhuravlev expressed doubt about Ukraine’s ability to launch a large-scale offensive, pointing to a deepening personnel shortage in the Ukrainian Armed Forces as a critical limiting factor.